Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League – Group D
Date: Wednesday, 28th September, 2016
Kick-off: 19:45 UK.
Venue: Estadio Vicente Calderon, Madrid.
Atletico Madrid are hoping that it will be third time lucky for them. They faced Real Madrid in the final of the Champions League for the second time in three years at the end of last season, this time managing to take the game to penalties before losing out on the trophy.
The new season has started in decent, if unspectacular fashion, from Diego Simeone’s side. They drew their opening two games against Alaves and Leganes before beating Celta Vigo, PSV, and Sporting Gijon. A draw at the Camp Nou is definitely a point gained rather than two dropped, and a typically efficient 1-0 win at home to Deportivo on Sunday maintained their unbeaten start to the season.
Atletico Madrid have only managed four wins from their seven competitive games so far though, and with Real Madrid and Barcelona so dominant they can’t afford to be dropping these sort of points.
They also face a very tough task in the Champions League if they want to claim the top spot in their group. Bayern Munich will be expecting to clinch the top spot, but they were probably also expecting to win the Champions League semi final last season! They didn’t though, with Atletico Madrid’s 1-0 win at home granting them passage to the final on away goals.
Bayern Munich have started the season in blistering fashion though. They beat Borussia Dortmund in the German Super Cup and have followed that with seven straight victories. They have conceded just one goal this season, scoring 27 at the other end and are predictably sitting at the top of the Bundesliga table.
Their Champions League opener didn’t disappoint either as they put five past Rostov.
Atletico Madrid are ruthlessly efficient at home though, and even more so in the Champions League. They have won 13 of their last 17 home games in the Champions League, losing just once and drawing the remaining three games. This includes victories over Barcelona (twice), Bayern Munich, Juventus, AC Milan, and Porto. Backing against them at home in the Champions League is a fools errand.
Bayern Munich have lost five of their last ten trips away in the Champions League as well, winning just two of them. This makes odds of 2.075 for an Atletico Madrid 0.0 Asian Handicap look incredibly good value, so I’m backing that along with a 1-0 correct score prediction at 13/2.
Head To Head
Bayern Munich have won one and lost one of their two clashes with Atletico Madrid, with that tie coming in last season's semi final of the Champions League and Atletico Madrid winning on away goals.
Bayern Munich have won just 20% of their last ten away days in the Champions League, losing 50% of them. Atletico Madrid have won 76% of their last 17 home games in the competition, losing just 6% of them.
Goalkeeper Miguel Angel Moya, centre back Jose Gimenez, midfielders Tiago and Augusto Fernandez, and winger Alessio Cerci are all sidelined for the hosts.
Centre back Holger Badstuber and winger Douglas Costa are expected to miss out for Bayern Munich.