Reason For Betting Tips
Fiorentina have had a bit of a flat start to the new season, and whilst they haven’t been disastrously bad by any means, they will want to up the pace a bit going forward.
They opened their campaign with a 2-1 loss at Juventus, which was to be expected really. They managed a 1-0 victory over Chievo next time out but could only muster a goalless draw at PAOK in their Europa League group stage opener. Another 1-0 win, this time over Roma, came next before back to back draws against Udinese and Milan.
Their trouble is getting goals. They have already kept four clean sheets this season, but their return of just five goals in their opening six matches is simply not good enough. They have only scored two goals in their three home matches as well, leaving them down in 12th in Serie A.
Qarabag have started the season predictably brightly in the Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa, although there have been a few issues. They have lost to Inter Baku and drew against Kapaz on Sunday to leave them with 13 points from their six opening games, putting them 3rd in the table.
They actually began the season much earlier than this though with some Champions League qualification ties in July. They knocked Dudelange out of the competition but then lost to Viktoria Plzen on away goals, with that defeat setting up a Europa League playoff tie with IFK Goteborg. A defeat away from home was amended by a 3-0 win in Azerbaijan to send them through to the group stages, where they played out a 2-2 draw with Slovan Liberec in the opening match.
Compared to their usual dominance of the league they have struggled to score away from home this season. They have only netted five goals in their six away matches this season, resulting in all but one of them having fewer than three goals scored in total.
This, along with Fiorentina’s record of four of their six competitive games this season having fewer than three goals, makes odds of 8/11 for Under 2.5 Goals look very good value. I’m backing this along with a 1-0 win for Fiorentina at 9/2 for my correct score prediction.
Head To Head
This will be the first time these two sides have met.
Fiorentina have seen Under 2.5 Goals in 67% of their games this season, whilst Qarabag have in 83% of their away days.
Defender Davide Astori and midfielder Matias Vecino are both expected to be fit enough to start on Thursday.
Qarabag are expecting to have a fully fit squad on Thursday.