The Curitiba derby is usually a competitive affair with the teams often fairly evenly matched. Coritiba won the first meeting of the season but overall Atletico PR have been far more impressive. They boast the joint best defensive record in the Brazilian top flight, conceding less than 1 goal per game on average. They also have the best home record in the league with an impressive points per game ratio of 2.53 on their own patch. 38 of their 45 points have come at home and although this game will be played at the technically neutral Estádio Durival de Brito e Silva in the city, they’ll still be able to rely on passionate support again so they’ll be confident of maintaining their fine home record.
Atletico PR were beaten 1-0 at Gremio in midweek but are chasing a 6th straight home win here and it could be enough to push them into the top five and serious contention for a place in next season’s Copa Libertadores. It would also plunge rivals Coritiba into deeper trouble.
The visitors still have a 4 point cushion on the drop-zone so they don’t need to panic just yet but their last two performances have been deeply concerning and if they repeat that level of performance here they will surely get nothing out of it. They failed to score in two games against fellow strugglers and they will find Atletico PR’s defence much tougher to break down than either Internacional of Figueirense who restricted them to a disappointing 0-0 home draw on Thursday night.
Derbies can be a bit unpredictable with the occasional strange result but it’s hard to look past Atletico PR here. They’ve been so dominant at home that you’d back them to beat even the strongest teams in their own town. The change of stadium makes it a bit more unpredictable but with Coritiba missing a couple of first-choice defenders, backing Atletico PR to Win at 8/5 looks to offer good value.
Head To Head
The last 5 meetings have produced 2 wins for Atletico PR and 3 for Coritiba. Coritiba won the first league derby of the season 1-0 in June but Atletico PR have beaten them twice in 2016 in State competitions.
Atletico PR have won 80% of their home games this season in the league. Coritiba have lost 60% of their away matches.
Centre-back Paulo André is a big doubt here after picking up an injury against Gremio. Wanderson will fill in if he fails to make it.
The visitors are without two members of their regular back four. Nery Bareiro and César Benítez are both suspended. Walisson Maia and Dodô are likely to slot in.